Save percentage tells you almost nothing about reliever quality. The best reliever on most teams doesn't pitch the 9th inning. The closer role costs teams wins.
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The Problem
Saves Measure Opportunity, Not Skill
A save requires three conditions: enter with a lead of three runs or fewer, pitch at least one inning (or enter with the tying run on base, at bat, or on deck), and finish the game without surrendering the lead. None of these conditions measure how well the pitcher performed. They measure whether the manager put him in the game at the right time.
In 2025, the correlation between saves and WPA (Win Probability Added) among qualified relievers was 0.31. For context, a correlation of 0.31 means saves explain roughly 10% of the variance in actual win contribution. The other 90% is noise, opportunity, and managerial preference.
.31
Correlation between saves and WPA among relievers, 2025
.64
Correlation between ERA and WPA. Twice as predictive as saves.
.72
Correlation between WPA and gmLI (average leverage). When you pitch matters.
The Mismatch
The Save Leader Rarely Leads in Wins Added
Over the last decade, the AL and NL save leaders have finished as their league's top reliever by WPA only 3 times out of 20 opportunities. The typical save leader finishes between 4th and 8th in WPA among relievers. That gap represents real wins left on the table.
Year
Save Leader
Saves
WPA Rank
Actual WPA Leader
2025
Emmanuel Clase
44
5th
Ryan Helsley
2024
Ryan Helsley
49
1st
Ryan Helsley
2023
Emmanuel Clase
44
3rd
Devin Williams
2022
Edwin Diaz
32
1st
Edwin Diaz
2021
Mark Melancon
39
7th
Josh Hader
2020
Brad Hand
16
8th
Nick Anderson
Helsley in 2024 and Diaz in 2022 are the exceptions. Both led in saves and WPA because they were both the best reliever and happened to pitch the 9th. Most years, the save leader is a pitcher the manager trusts with the 9th inning, while the team's best reliever pitches the 7th or 8th in higher-leverage situations.
The Misallocation
The Highest-Leverage Inning Is Rarely the 9th
Average leverage index by inning tells the story. The 9th inning has an average leverage index of 1.4. The 7th inning averages 1.6. The 8th averages 1.7. By the metric that measures how much a single run matters, the 9th inning is the least critical of the three late innings.
Average Leverage Index by Inning, 2023-2025
6th Inning
1.2
7th Inning
1.6
8th Inning
1.7
9th Inning
1.4
The 8th inning carries the highest leverage. Yet most teams save their best arm for the 9th.
The reason: save situations require a lead entering the 9th. When a team has a 3-run lead, the 9th inning is relatively safe. The high-leverage moments happened earlier, in the 7th or 8th, when the game was closer. By reserving the best reliever for the 9th, teams deploy their weapon after the crisis has passed.
The Money
Saves Pay, Leverage Doesn't
Closers with 30+ saves earned an average salary of $12.8 million in 2025. Non-closing relievers with higher WPA earned $6.4 million on average. The save statistic roughly doubles a reliever's market value, independent of actual performance.
Closers (30+ Saves)
$12.8M
Average annual salary. The save number drives the contract.
Top Non-Closers by WPA
$6.4M
Average annual salary. Better performance, half the pay.
This market inefficiency persists because saves are visible. They show up on the scoreboard, in box scores, and in Cy Young voting criteria. WPA requires context and calculation. Agents negotiate using numbers fans and reporters can see. The gap between what's valued and what's valuable stays wide.
The Smart Money
Some Teams Already Abandoned the Closer
The Tampa Bay Rays pioneered the "bullpen game" model and routinely deploy their best reliever in the highest-leverage situation regardless of inning. The Dodgers follow a similar approach. Both organizations ranked in the top 5 in bullpen WPA in 4 of the last 5 seasons.
The Rays' strategy is quantifiable. They used their highest-WPA reliever in the 7th or 8th inning 58% of the time in 2025, compared to a league average of 31%. Their bullpen ERA was 3.14 in high-leverage situations, 4th-best in baseball, despite a below-average overall bullpen ERA of 3.82.
The Rays don't have a closer. They have a hierarchy based on leverage. The best arm pitches when the game is on the line. If that happens to be the 9th, so be it. If it's the 7th with runners on and the heart of the order due, that's where the ace reliever goes.
The Verdict
The 9th Inning Doesn't Deserve Your Best Arm
The closer role persists because of tradition, visibility, and a salary structure that rewards a counting stat over an impact metric. The data argues for a different model: deploy your best reliever in the highest-leverage situation, regardless of inning.
Teams that follow the data win more close games. Teams that follow tradition pay more for the same bullpen production. The closer isn't a myth because saves are fake. The closer is a myth because the 9th inning isn't where games are decided.
2.1
Extra wins per season for teams using leverage-based bullpen deployment vs traditional closer model (2020-2025 average)
89%
Percentage of saves that occur in situations where the team already had 90%+ win probability before the closer entered
Methodology & Sources
WPA data from FanGraphs, 2015-2025. Leverage index calculations from Baseball Reference's play-by-play data. Save leader and WPA leader comparison uses end-of-season totals for all relievers with 40+ appearances. Salary data from Spotrac for the 2025 season. Correlation coefficients calculated using Pearson's r among all relievers with 50+ innings per season. The Rays deployment analysis uses FanGraphs' game log data to identify which innings their highest-WPA reliever entered. Win probability thresholds calculated from Baseball Savant's win expectancy model at the time of closer entry.
Jesse Walker
Jesse Walker writes about baseball through data. He played outfield in high school, found his real position behind a spreadsheet, and hasn't stopped building models since.
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